[NASCAR] A not very in-depth analysis of the Chase

The first 26 races of the season are done, and now we're down to nut cutting time. From the outset I have never been too crazy about this new points format because I felt it was more institutionalized socialism (See also: The Lucky Dog rule), but I'll try to be fair and see how it works this first season before I solidify my position.

Basically, this points race comes down to which driver gets on a hot streak.

1. Jeff Gordon - Always a hot commodity and up for a challenge. I've never been a fan, but he's hard to dismiss.
2. Jimmie Johnson (-5) - Has had some dominating performances, but also some bonehead blunders by him and his crew. I wouldn't bet the farm on him.
3. Dale Earnhardt Jr. (-10) - Still a little inconsistent, but the tracks they'll be racing on are ones where he enjoys success. I wouldn't count him out. He might just find the acorn.
4. Tony Stewart (-15) - See Jeff Gordon thoughts. If I were Tony, I would be wanting to win just to piss my detractors off.
5. Matt Kenseth (-20) - Has kept a low profile this season, but he could very well win this thing. He also has the benefit of still having a lot of test dates left to use.
6. Elliot Sadler (-25) - I am glad to see this guy having some success. He's also been on a hot streak. However, I think the competition may be too tough for him to overcome.
7. Kurt Busch (-30) - Good race car driver but, like Johnson, too inconsistent.
8. Mark Martin (-35) - My sentimental favorite. That means he'll probably blow it. I'm still pulling for him though. The guy is a class act.
9. Jeremy Mayfield (-40) - Where the hell did he come from? I can still remember when he drove the #98 for Cal Yarborough.
10. Ryan Newman (-45) - It's been a tough season for Newman, but he still mananged to make it here. I expect a strong performance but a fall short of number 1.